Putin's annual address EPA-EFE/YURI KOCHETKOV

Analysis: Putin thinks he achieved key goals in the war, but here's what he failed to do

Russian President Vladimir Putin believes Russia has achieved key goals in the war against Ukraine, but is also increasingly concerned about the economic impact of the conflict on the country, Reuters reported on Thursday, citing anonymous sources.

A source familiar with the Kremlin's thinking reportedly said that Russia had weakened the Ukrainian military and secured territorial control linking mainland Russia to annexed Crimea.

Putin initially launched the invasion in 2022 with the stated goals of "denazification and demilitarization" of Ukraine.

From the outset, Russia's all-out invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 had two goals.

The first goal was to annex as much of Ukrainian territory as possible: ideally, all of the Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia regions. This was to be supplemented by the capture of the capital Kiev and the replacement of the Ukrainian government with one subordinate to Russia. The second, broader goal of the invasion was to use these gains to absorb Ukraine into the Russian sphere of influence and transform the balance of power in Europe.

A military but not a strategic success

Despite the Russian military’s advances in 2024, there is no scenario in which Russian President Vladimir Putin will achieve any of his goals, according to Foreign Policy. While Russia will likely seize at least a fifth of Ukrainian territory and perhaps keep it forever, the rest of Ukraine will not be connected to Russia. Hence, Putin’s invasion is likely to result in military success – far below his declared territorial goals – but not strategic success.

Putin's determination to subjugate Ukraine and halt its western course stems from a widespread belief among Russian nationalists that Ukraine's separation from Russia is unnatural. In his view, no country is more important to Russia, as the two countries have been united by a common culture for more than a thousand years. He and other Russian nationalists still have difficulty accepting Ukraine's independence in 1991.

As former Russian Deputy Prime Minister Vladislav Surkov said in 2020: “There is no Ukraine. There is Ukrainianism… But there is no nation.”

Moving away from the Russian sphere

While Putin may be able to negotiate the retention of large swaths of Ukrainian territory, he cannot force or bargain for the return of a Ukraine that is culturally or politically united with Russia. After years of Russian revanchism, Ukrainian identity is now defined by a determination to have as little to do with Russia as possible.

Although Russian is still widely spoken in central, southern, and eastern Ukraine, the Ukrainian language has become a key part of national identity. This trend, especially pronounced among younger Ukrainians, will accelerate; for future generations it will become something natural and unnoticeable.

Similarly, although Orthodox Christianity has united Ukrainians and Russians for more than a thousand years, last year Ukrainian law required parishes to sever ties with the Moscow Patriarchate, which has become an outspoken supporter of Putin's war.

Today, when Ukrainians think about their security, they no longer associate with Russia. Any agreement to end the war will include a provision barring Ukraine from joining NATO, at Russia’s insistence; however, Ukraine’s significant security ties with Europe will continue to grow.

European countries already supply Ukraine with weapons, train its soldiers, and invest in its defense industry. Their role will expand, and Ukraine – which now has the most experienced and tested military in Europe – will remain militarily aligned with European countries in the long term, even without a formal alliance.

Together, these events suggest that, regardless of the outcome of the war, Putin will not achieve his most important goal – keeping Ukraine in the Russian sphere of influence. The conflict will also not leave Russia in a better position on other fronts.

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