US President Donald Trump's phone calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky this week represent the most intense diplomacy aimed at ending the war in Ukraine since the Russian invasion that began three years ago.

The first signs, however, are discouraging, as Putin refused to sign Trump's proposal for a 30-day ceasefire, writes CNN.

Yet Trump qualifies the opening of every dialogue as a triumph. And every leader tries to manipulate diplomacy for his own purposes and plays with the public – not least to avoid blame if everything falls apart.

The White House is creating a fiction of significant progress, in order to maintain the chances of the peace process developing, but also to support the increasingly unstable idea that Trump is a great negotiator, uniquely capable of achieving what he envisioned.

Putin categorically rejected Trump's big demand for a ceasefire. He simply explained that he was not ready to end the war, as evidenced by the new conditions that Ukraine could never accept if it wanted to survive as a sovereign state.

But the Kremlin doesn't want to alienate Trump either, so it offered the bait of the possibility of great power relations with Russia to attract the American president.

Zelensky realizes that he cannot afford a repeat of the disastrous conflict in the Oval Office, so he is now readily agreeing to almost anything Trump asks. Ironically, Zelensky’s argument that partly fueled the dispute with Trump in Washington – that Putin cannot be trusted to respect the ceasefire – has now proven to be correct.

Ukraine and Russia are vying for Trump's attention and trying to blame each other for disrupting a ceasefire. After a night of intense fighting, each side accused the other of violating a partial agreement brokered by the US president to avoid an attack on energy infrastructure.

Their distancing undermines Trump's optimistic statements that a peace deal is within reach.

The White House has publicly ignored Putin's stubbornness, praising the call with Trump on Tuesday and scheduling technical talks with the Russians in Saudi Arabia in the coming days.

Creating the illusion of progress can be an important aspect of peace negotiations, offering an incentive for warring parties to stay at the negotiating table.

However, in this case, it seems that the alternate reality was also designed to protect the honor of Trump, who during the election campaign predicted that he would resolve the war in 24 hours.

In their phone call on Tuesday, Putin clearly emerged as the winner in the conversation with the US president, who is not prepared to put any pressure on the Kremlin strongman.

On the other hand, Trump appears to have caved in to Zelensky, likely due to the Ukrainian president's flattering tone.

During their hour-long conversation on Wednesday, he agreed to help find needed air defense equipment for Ukraine in Europe.

White House spokeswoman Carolyn Levitt said the United States would continue to provide military assistance and intelligence to Ukraine.

This is significant because Trump cut off such aid to force Kiev to the negotiating table. It also represents a rare rebuke to Putin, who has made the suspension of U.S. military and intelligence resources for Ukraine a condition for lasting peace.

"Just finished a very good phone call with President Zelensky of Ukraine. Lasted about an hour," Trump wrote on Truth Social.

"Most of the discussion was based on the call with President Putin yesterday for both Russia and Ukraine to align on their demands and needs. We are on the right track."

After his calls with Putin and Zelensky, Trump's dream of a peace deal seems more distant than ever. Yet if all of this weekend's drama somehow turns out to be the beginning of a genuine attempt to create a fair and lasting solution, Trump will prove his skeptical critics wrong.

Russia has not changed its goals since the invasion

The Trump administration will soon witness a demonstration of Kremlin diplomacy – by accepting a 30-day ceasefire in principle but rejecting it in practice with a series of conditions that demand the capitulation of Ukraine and the West, Putin is buying time.

Lengthy negotiations on technical issues will give his forces time to exploit their current battlefield advantage and push Ukrainian troops out of the Kursk region into Russia – one of Kiev's few territorial trump cards for any future peace talks.

Putin's conditions for a peace deal – including the removal of the current Ukrainian government, the demobilization of Kiev's forces and a desire to see NATO withdraw from Eastern Europe – have not changed.

At talks with Russia in Saudi Arabia earlier this month, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the coming days would test Moscow's seriousness in the negotiations.

"It's up to them to say yes or no. I hope they say yes. If they do, I think we'll make great progress. If they say no, then, unfortunately, we'll know what the obstacle to peace here is," said Rubio, who believes that Moscow has now responded negatively.

However, he cannot say that for obvious political and diplomatic reasons and has no real choice but to continue to press them.

Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen best summed up the current state of the negotiations in an interview with CNN.

"Trump wants peace. Europe wants peace. Ukraine wants peace. And the only thing missing is Putin."

However, Russia is unlikely to withdraw its forces. According to a Russian account of the phone call with Trump, Putin offered Trump the chance to create the broad relations with Russia he wants, which seems to force the American leader to view the war in Ukraine as a side story.

Next, the US wants to negotiate a ceasefire in the Black Sea – which also suits Putin, because, like the proposed halt to attacks on energy infrastructure, it could deprive Kiev of one of its most successful battlegrounds.

Ukraine has no choice but to play Trump's game

Rubio and National Security Adviser Mike Walz described Zelensky's call to Trump as "fantastic." It marked a diplomatic success for the Ukrainian president, less than three weeks after he was kicked out of the Oval Office.

Zelensky has softened his approach, apparently thinking that to save his country from the worst of the president’s pro-Putin policies, he must be the side in the conflict most clearly committed to peace, and thus to the diplomatic triumph that Trump desperately wants for his political legacy.

The Ukrainian president, in a report on his conversation with Trump, indicated that he thanked Trump for "a good and productive start to the work."

"We believe that together with America, with President Trump and under American leadership, a lasting peace can be achieved this year," Zelensky said in a statement that was much more emphatic about American efforts than the Russians had said.

He raised a key issue for Ukrainians in any peace deal: security guarantees that would be vital to preventing new conflicts.

And according to the US report of the call, he appears to have responded positively to the suggestion, made by Trump in his usual transactional style, that future US ownership of Ukrainian power plants could improve their security.

While it pleases the White House, Ukraine is also working on a parallel front with Europe, which is building a “coalition of the willing” that would help Ukraine if Trump withdraws. Zelensky’s top adviser, Andriy Yermak, for example, called on Wednesday for Ukraine’s accelerated membership in the European Union, which he said is essential for strengthening European security.

Meeting of military leaders

Britain is hosting a closed-door meeting of senior military leaders from the "coalition of the willing" on Thursday as they prepare plans for a proposed peacekeeping force for Ukraine.

More than 20 countries are thought to be involved, reports BBC.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is expected to attend on Thursday afternoon after his first visit to Barrow, where he is due to lay the keel of one of Britain's next-generation nuclear submarines.

Plans for a Western-led peacekeeping force for Ukraine are reportedly moving into the operational phase.