Guardian analysis: The EU must open its doors to new members, its survival depends on it

EPA-EFE / PATRICK SEEGER

Russian aggression in Ukraine made the enlargement of the European Union necessary. For years, "expansion" has been a low priority, writes the Guardian.

Croatia was the last country to join the union, more than 10 years ago. But things have changed. Ursula von der Leyen said at a forum in Bled, Slovenia that the security of Europe depends on the enlargement of the European Union. Thanks to Vladimir Putin, as Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama said, enlargement is back on track. The fact that enlargement is a strategic priority allows the acceptance of new members. But that doesn't make it safe.

Some 20 years have passed since the six countries of the Western Balkans (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Kosovo) were promised membership, but little progress has been made since then.

Albania, Montenegro and North Macedonia are NATO members, while Bosnia and Kosovo have a large NATO presence. It is a very different scenario from Eastern Europe, where the lack of a NATO shield to protect Ukraine, Moldova and the Caucasus means that these countries see EU membership as a substitute for a security guarantee.

But Ukraine's bid for EU membership in particular has created a palpable fear in the Western Balkans that they will be left behind. Serbia wants nothing to do with NATO, and its close relationship with Moscow has complicated Belgrade's bid to join the EU, especially after Russia's major invasion of Ukraine.

If it were not for the invasion of Ukraine, accession negotiations with Albania and North Macedonia would of course still be blocked and Bosnia and Herzegovina would not have been recognized as a candidate for the EU.

The EU might also not have agreed on a budget for its new €6 billion growth plan for the Western Balkans. The plan makes European investment conditional on Balkan reforms, but if their full potential is realized, countries in the region could take almost as much money as full members are entitled to under the EU's cohesion fund, which was set up to help them the poorest regions.

A number of projects are planned to strengthen the gradual European integration of the region, such as the inclusion of these countries in the single Eurozone. Meanwhile, skepticism about the EU's intentions still abounds in Albania. Tirana also has the usual list of complaints about unfair treatment of the region by Brussels.

However, this is not enough. New Enlargement Commissioner Von der Leyen must raise the level of ambition for what gradual integration can actually deliver. Negotiations on the next seven-year EU budget, which begin at the beginning of next year and cover the period 2028-2034, must also take into account the financial implications of the inclusion of new members.

Most importantly, steps must be taken to extract the main poison from the existing policy of enlargement. For too long, enlargement has been hijacked by the whims of existing members who want to promote their own national interests. Whether it is Cyprus and Greece for Turkey, Greece and Bulgaria for North Macedonia, France (in the past) and Greece for Albania, or Hungary for Ukraine, the use of membership politics by various members to advance their own (legitimate) or not) interests that have dramatically hampered his credibility by constantly shifting the stakes for candidate countries.

The main way this poison is spread is by giving EU governments the opportunity to block the process at every stage. Viktor Orbán's Hungary is no longer even trying to hide this goal. However, there is nothing in EU law that requires such intervention by Member States, who are only required to illuminate the beginning and end of the process. In previous rounds of enlargement, intermediate steps were properly treated as technical matters in the hands of the Commission. It is politically and legally possible to return to this method.

Germany and Slovenia have already proposed ways to ease the process. Other member states that support Europe's integration of the Western Balkans, such as Austria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Italy and Slovakia, should follow suit. Countries such as Poland and the Baltics, with an interest in Ukraine and Moldova joining the EU, as well as converts from recent enlargement such as France, should make their voices heard.

There will be peripherals like Hungary and possibly Bulgaria, Greece and Cyprus. But as the history of European integration has proven time and time again, when a critical mass is built in favor of a decision, it is very difficult for rebellious members to resist for longer. If the supporters of the enlarged EU are true believers, it is time to show it with concrete political actions and not only with words, but also with bilateral agreements, such as was reached between Italy and Albania on the issue of immigration, writes the Guardian.

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