American experts do not believe that "Wagner" fighters can change the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine
It is unlikely that the former members of the mercenary group "Wagner" will cause a significant strategic or even local effect on the battlefield in Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War (ISV) said, quoted by Ukrinform.
According to the ISV, there is growing evidence that Wagner operatives are working alongside Rosgvardia and that the Russian State Duma will consider a bill that would allow Rosgvardia to form volunteer units.
Experts note that Wagner's current commander, Anton Elizarov (codenamed "Lotus") is reportedly negotiating with Rosgvardia to have the group's current personnel join Rosgvardia's volunteer formations, but on terms favorable to Wagner.
Meanwhile, according to a Russian internal source, elements of the "Wagner" contingent in Belarus do not want to sign contracts with either the Russian Ministry of Defense or "Rosgvardiya", ISV reports. Instead, they plan to join Belarusian President Lukashenko's idea of forming a Belarusian private military company with Wagner fighters under the command of the Wagner commander, codenamed Brest.
"It is unlikely that the partial deployment of ex-Wagner personnel to any frontline area will have any significant strategic or even local effect on the Ukrainian battlefield," the Institute for the Study of War concludes.