If Tetovo sneezes, who will get pneumonia?
The results of the first round of local elections can also be reflected in the central government. This is the main refrain after the first round of elections, with a focus on Tetovo, where in the second round in the election race remain the candidates of DUI and BESA, which are partners in the Government. That puts the Social Democrats in a delicate position on the question - which of the candidates in Tetovo will they support in the second round. The dilemma is current in the context of the opposition announcements that a new government majority is possible, and in some of those speculations it is calculated with potential dissatisfaction of BESA, if it does not receive the support of SDSM in the second round in Tetovo.
Although the ruling coalition is of the opinion that "the parties will not direct the voters and the citizens will decide for themselves", it is clear that many election battles in the second round depend on their mutual support. It is considered that it is risky for the Social Democrats to give up support for the DUI candidate in Tetovo, because that way they risk being left without support in the election race for the City of Skopje.
- If the DUI candidate sneezes in Tetovo, the SDSM candidate for Skopje may get a pneumonia. If the BESA candidate sneezes, the ruling majority can also get pneumonia, reads the narrative of the Tetovo dilemma.
For the time being, sources from the ruling coalition do not enter into a discussion on how the Tetovo knot will be unwound. Government partners are expected to discuss and reach an agreement on the issue. Although "half-half" support is not ruled out, the question is whether it can realistically be quantified that way.
BESA: Uniting everyone for change
"BESA" has so far refrained from this issue, but according to the answer it is certain that they expect support from all those who voted "for change".
- The citizens of Tetovo have shown that they know how to appreciate a good program, good ideas and sincere commitment to change in Tetovo. Taken as a whole, two-thirds of voters voted for the change. Our goal is to secure those votes, regardless of ethnic, religious and political affiliation, with a single goal - to return Tetovo to its glory. Our program and our ideas will unite everyone. We expect support from all citizens of Tetovo. President Bilal Kasami will lead Tetovo together with the citizens, they say for DW from Besa.
But one party has already stated it will not support BESA. It is about Alternativa, which stood out in a separate party entity precisely because of disagreements between two wings of the former joint party BESA.
In a debate on TV 21, in which DUI and Alliance for Albanians MPs Arber Ademi and Elmi Aziri participated, the Alliance representative said that they were seriously considering supporting BESA candidate in Tetovo, Bilal Kasami.
- In the coming days we expect to have negotiations with BESA. Let's see, it is possible to reach some cooperation. It is important for DUI and Teuta Arifi to fall, which deserves zero votes because it did nothing for Tetovo, said Aziri.
After the debate, TV 21 reported that a reaction had arrived from Alternative, which is a coalition partner of the Alliance for Albanians. Alternative's spokesman Orhan Murtezani wrote: "Ladies and Gentlemen, Alternative will not support Bilal Kasami in Tetovo."
Complex mathematics
For the Albanian parties, Tetovo is an important "trophy", because it is considered a "key city for the Albanians" and the power of the parties in the Albanian bloc is most often measured through the election battle. DUI entered the battle with the current mayor Teuta Arifi, and BESA seeks the trust of the party leader, Bilal Kasami. The difference between them in the first round is not big. Arifi won 11 votes, and Kasami 138.
Given the dissent from Alternative, of the contingent of votes for "change" that BESA can now hope for, only a fraction of those received by the opposition Alliance for Albanians / Alternative coalition candidate, Vulnet Murseli, remain (6.165 votes). There, Snezana Stojanovska from Integra won 1.989 votes and Afrim Ibraimi from the Movement for State and Justice, 378 votes.
Over 6.000 votes in Tetovo have been won by the government coalition partners of DUI and BESA: the DPA candidate, Sadi Bexheti - 3.840 and Hamdija Elezovic from SDSM - 2.373 votes.
Behind these numbers are many party mathematics about which parties to support, not only as an opportunity for change in Tetovo, but also as an opposition hope in further plans for a new majority or a "map" for early parliamentary elections.
The leader of the Alliance, Zijadin Sela, who hopes for the victory of their candidates in the second round of the elections, when asked about the speculations about a new majority or early parliamentary elections, believes that two consecutive procedures are needed.
- If there is such an initiative for a new majority, we will accept it. This government must fall. But I mean the majority, the Government, which in a period of one year should first normalize the situation, and then immediately go to the polls, says Sela.
But before that, the AA / A coalition is first faced with the challenge of securing an election victory that will give legitimacy to such expectations. From those results, but also from the way the partners will iron out the relations on the issue of possible support of one candidate in Tetovo, according to experts, will depend on whether the speculative narrative for a new majority will remain with traffic signals in only one, or maybe for two-way traffic.
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